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FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK
AEMET and other meteorological agencies will advise of evolution of DANA system

Sunday 8th September 2019

javeamigos.com | FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK

The state meteorological agency AEMET and other agencies have been tracking the development of a DANA (High Level Isolated Depression) which could bring heavy or torrential rain, strong winds and heavy seas to the Mediterranean coastal areas by the middle of the forthcoming week. At the moment, there is uncertainty about its exact trajectory and AEMET will publish follow-up analysis in its daily bulletins and, if the situation deteriorates, it will issue the appropriate warning notice.

During the latter half of tomorrow Monday 9th September, the DANA is expected to enter the zone through the eastern Cantabrian coast and move between the south-east of the peninsular and North Africa during the next few days. Its evolution could affect the Mediterranean area with heavy rainfall, occasionally torrential, strong winds and heavy sea conditions. It will also affect other areas of the Iberian Peninsula with persistent rainfall in the Cantabrian area on Tuesday and strong winds across many areas on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in the mountain area. Temperatures are also likely to fall in many places in the interior and snowfall is expected in the Pyrenees down to about 2000/2200 metres.

On Tuesday the heaviest rain is expected in Catalonia and the following day Wednesday in the Comunidad Valenciana and Balearics and in the south-east of the peninsular on Thursday. However it should be noted that small changes in the behaviour of the evolution of the DANA as well as winds at lower altitudes could displace the chances of the heavy rainfall to other areas.

The Climatology Laboratory at the University of Alicante backs up the state agency forecast models as well as the uncertainty over the evolution of the DANA. Both entities use the ECMWF forecast model which is regarded as one of the most reliable in the world, but the characteristic of the DANA makes it extremely difficult to produce long-range forecasts of high degrees of accuracy. Many factors play in its development, including its exact trajectory, surface winds as well as other cyclonic developments in the area, but there is great confidence in the air temperatures at levels falling to very low levels (-20°c / -22°c) at around 5,500m which is rare for this time of year as well as very high sea temperatures of around 26°c.

If all the pieces fit together at the same time, many areas of the Mediterranean coast will see torrential rain with accumulations in excess of 300 litres per square metre possible. Otherwise there will still be a period of instability with showers and scattered storms.





 

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